Decision Modelling

Medical finding Making: Modeling the effect of
operation!

This lecture:
? Some theory about modelling
? Again: mannikin using decision trees
? After the break: Sensitivity Analysis

WHAT IS model & WHY IS IT USEFUL?

? Model: simplification of the real world, with solitary(prenominal) the most important
components considered.
? Enables to work out what is likely to happen if you shambling particular
decisions in health and healthcare
? Encourages medical decision-making to be explicit
? Explicitly shows the lift out decision (from >=2 options) at the clipping
a decision is made, presumptuousness available data at that time.
? Helps to identify gaps in live evidence
? Statistically attractive : allows a range of uncertainties to be
confered and shows how these may come to the outcomes and,
hence, the decision.

Medical Decision Making - Simulation & Markov models

19-10-2010

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WHAT IS GOOD bore IN MODELING?

A good model should:
? reflect current clinical practice vs. an alternative
? be based on the best available data and assumptions where
necessary
? cover an appropriate time period (e.g. longer time horizon for chronic
diseases)

? explore the question around data inputs and assumptions using
sensitivity analyses.




? be transparent and reproducible

totally models are wrong…
… some are useful
Medical Decision Making - Simulation & Markov models

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WAYS TO STUDY A SYSTEM
jurisprudence AND KELTON, 2000

System

Experiment
with the tangible
system

Experiment
with a model
of the system

Physical
model

Mathematical
model

Analytical
solution

Simulation

Medical Decision Making - Simulation & Markov models

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 audition WITH THE ACTUAL SYSTEM

? If possible:
? No question whether the study is valid

System

? However, oftentimes non possible:
? Costly
? Disruptive to the system
? System might not exist
? Might take long time
? So, preferably use models

Experiment
with the
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